PredictIt is the original U.S. political prediction market — a research-driven platform where, since 2014, traders have bought and sold shares on elections, nominations and policy outcomes. It predates the current boom by a decade, and it survives on an unusual legal footing: not a registered exchange like Kalshi, but a not-for-profit operating under a special CFTC no-action arrangement. This review covers how it works, its fees and limits, and the legal status that makes it both unique and precarious.
Last verified: June 2026.
PredictIt Fees, Limits & Welcome Bonus 2026
| PredictIt | Details |
|---|---|
| Welcome offer | None — PredictIt is a not-for-profit research market with no bonus |
| Promo code | No promo code — sign up at PredictIt |
| Legal status | CFTC no-action relief (Letter 25-20); operated by the non-profit PMRC |
| Focus | Politics only (elections, nominations, policy) |
| Fees | 10% on net profits + 5% on withdrawals |
| Position limit | Up to $3,500 per contract (raised from the original $850) |
| Minimum age | 18+ (U.S. persons only) |
| Verified | June 2026 |
Is PredictIt legal?
Yes, but through a narrow and contested path. PredictIt launched in 2014 under CFTC no-action Letter 14-130, run by New Zealand’s Victoria University of Wellington for academic research. In August 2022 the CFTC withdrew that relief and ordered a wind-down; PredictIt’s backers sued, and in Clarke v. CFTC the Fifth Circuit reversed and a preliminary injunction kept the market alive. In July 2025 the CFTC issued Letter 25-20, transferring operations to a U.S. non-profit, the Prediction Market Research Consortium, Inc. (PMRC), removing the old 5,000-traders-per-contract cap and updating the investment-limit framework. So PredictIt is legal for U.S. persons 18+, but it operates under staff no-action relief, not a full exchange license — a meaningful distinction from Kalshi. User funds are held in segregated accounts via a CFTC-approved clearing arrangement, and deposits carry a 30-day hold as an anti-money-laundering measure.
Is there a PredictIt promo code or bonus?
No. As a not-for-profit research market, PredictIt has never offered a welcome bonus or promo code. Anyone advertising a “PredictIt bonus code” is not describing a real offer.
How to use PredictIt
- Sign up at PredictIt and complete identity verification (U.S. persons, 18+).
- Deposit funds (subject to the 30-day hold before withdrawal).
- Pick a political market — e.g., a Senate confirmation or election outcome.
- Buy Yes or No shares priced 1¢–99¢; a correct share pays $1.00 at resolution.
- Trade or hold — you can sell before resolution, subject to the per-contract limit.
What you can trade
PredictIt is politics-only: presidential and congressional races, party nominations, control of the House and Senate, confirmations, and similar policy events. Its prices are widely cited as a sentiment gauge, though its limits make it a tool better suited to researchers and political enthusiasts than high-volume traders. Contracts are binary — for example, “Will the Senate confirm Nominee X by July 31, 2026?” — and resolve to $1.00 for the correct side.
How PredictIt compares
- vs Kalshi — Kalshi is a fully CFTC-regulated exchange with no position limits, lower fees and far broader markets; PredictIt is politics-only, capped and higher-fee, but with a long track record and niche election markets.
- vs Polymarket — Polymarket offers deeper political liquidity and lower costs (USDC); PredictIt is dollar-based and U.S.-only.
- vs the sportsbook apps — DraftKings, FanDuel and Robinhood event markets are sports- and finance-led; PredictIt doesn’t do sports at all.
Who operates PredictIt?
Since July 2025, PredictIt has been operated by the Prediction Market Research Consortium, Inc. (PMRC), a U.S. not-for-profit that took over from Victoria University of Wellington. Its long-time technology and operations partner, Aristotle, separately received CFTC approval to run a commercial prediction market and is expected to launch a broader platform (reported as an “Aristotle Exchange”), which could reshape PredictIt’s role over time. PredictIt itself remains a research-oriented, not-for-profit market.
Customer support
PredictIt provides email-based customer support and a help/FAQ center covering deposits, withdrawals, market rules and verification. As with other prediction markets, there is no published customer-service phone line.
App and platform ratings
PredictIt is primarily a web platform with mobile apps; star ratings and review counts move over time — confirm the current figures at publish time.
PredictIt FAQs
Is PredictIt legal in the US?
Yes, for U.S. persons 18+, under CFTC no-action relief (Letter 25-20) rather than a full exchange license. Its legal footing is narrower and more contested than Kalshi’s.
Is PredictIt safe?
User funds are held in segregated accounts via a CFTC-approved clearing arrangement, and the platform uses strict KYC and a 30-day deposit hold. As with any trading platform, you can still lose money on positions.
Is there a promo code or bonus?
No. PredictIt is a not-for-profit research market and offers no welcome bonus or promo code.
What are PredictIt’s fees?
10% on net profits and 5% on withdrawals — noticeably higher than newer exchanges.
What is the position limit?
Up to $3,500 per contract under the 2025 amended relief, raised from the original $850; the old 5,000-traders-per-contract cap was removed.
Can I bet on sports on PredictIt?
No. PredictIt is politics-only — elections, nominations and policy events.
Who runs PredictIt now?
The non-profit Prediction Market Research Consortium (PMRC), which took over from Victoria University of Wellington in 2025; Aristotle is its operations partner.
How do payouts work?
Contracts are binary, priced 1¢–99¢; the correct side pays $1.00 at resolution. You can also sell before a market closes.
Why is there a 30-day hold on deposits?
It’s an anti-money-laundering measure; funds you deposit can’t be withdrawn until the hold period passes.
PredictIt vs Kalshi — which should I use?
For broad markets, no limits and lower fees, Kalshi; for a long-running, politics-focused research market, PredictIt — bearing in mind its caps, higher fees and no-action legal status.
Trading event contracts carries risk of loss. 18+. Trade responsibly; the 988 Suicide & Crisis Lifeline offers 24/7 support.
