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Horse Racing Betting in 2027: Belmont Returns, Handle Keeps Sliding

By American.Bet TeamUpdated Oct 31, 202621+
Horse Racing in 2027: jockeys and racehorses rounding a dirt track turn, inside an outline map of the United States

American horse racing heads into 2027 with a split personality. The big days have never been richer, the purse pool is holding up and New York finally has its flagship track back, yet the everyday handle that pays for all of it keeps leaking. Our read is that 2027 will be a year of marquee records sitting on top of a slowly shrinking base, and the industry’s response to prediction markets will decide how fast that base erodes.

In this article 8 sections

US Thoroughbred handle: the long slide in numbers

Start with the money bet. According to Equibase figures reported by Thoroughbred Daily News, total wagering on US Thoroughbred races came to $11,028,652,933 in 2025, down 2.10% from $11,265,666,064 in 2024. Purses paid fell 2.53% to $1,220,644,640, a step back from the all-time high set the year before. Races run dropped from 30,852 to 29,401.

The interesting detail is underneath. Average wagering per race day rose 3.27% to $3,072,048, and average field size ticked up to 7.47 starters. Fewer cards, but each one carried more money. That is the shape of an industry consolidating rather than collapsing.

The first half of 2026 tested that theory, and it did not hold up well. Equibase’s midyear release, covered by BloodHorse via TrueNicks, showed handle down 4.52% to $5,524,557,601. Race days and races both fell 2.16%, to 1,675 and 13,869, while average field size slipped 3.75% to 7.26 and starts dropped 5.83% to 100,681. In other words, wagering fell faster than the racing supply did. For comparison, the first half of 2025 had 1,712 race days, itself down 4.36% from 1,790 a year earlier.

Purses went the other way. Available purses rose 1.24% to $596.75 million in the first half of 2026, and available purses per race day climbed 3.47%. June alone told the story in miniature: wagering down 4.70%, purses up 2.74%, with race days falling from 380 to 374.

Purses rising while handle falls is only sustainable when something other than bettors is paying. In many states, that something is gaming revenue.

Historical horse racing machines and the purse subsidy

Kentucky is the clearest example. The Kentucky Horse Racing and Gaming Corporation’s 2025 annual report puts historical horse racing (HHR) wagers at $11.2 billion for 2025. Total pari-mutuel wagering in the state rose $1.1 billion, or 10.7%, “most of which is attributable to HHR.” By contrast, on-track live wagering was $95.2 million. Kentucky ran 304 race days in 2025, 208 of them Thoroughbred, and paid $239.5 million in Thoroughbred purses.

Read those numbers side by side and the real economics of Kentucky racing are obvious. Machines styled as pari-mutuel wagers on past races now dwarf betting on live races in the state that hosts the Derby.

Churchill Downs Inc.’s second-quarter 2026 results confirm the trend at company level. Historical racing pari-mutuel revenue reached $265 million, up from $252 million, and Kentucky HRM venue revenue rose $12 million. Virginia was more mixed: Northern Virginia gained while Central Virginia lost $4 million, which the company put down to increased competition. CDI is also building the Rockingham Grand Casino in New Hampshire, an HRM venue targeted for mid-2027.

We expect HHR to keep propping up purses in 2027, but the Virginia numbers are a warning. Once every region has machines, growth turns into a fight over the same customers.

Online racebooks take the lion’s share of horse racing wagers

The bettors who remain are overwhelmingly online. There is no single national ADW figure in the official sources we reviewed, but state data is blunt. The Illinois Racing Board’s 2025 annual report shows advance deposit wagering at $302,484,852, about 69% of the state’s $441 million total handle. In 2010, ADW was roughly 13%. Total Illinois handle was $1.20 billion in 1995. In Kentucky, ADW handle of $381.8 million in 2025 was about four times on-track live wagering.

The big operators are holding their own. TwinSpires handled $634 million in horse racing wagers in the second quarter of 2026, up from $609 million, helped by what CDI called “record-breaking Derby Week wagering.” For readers comparing apps, our horse racing betting guide covers the licensed ADWs state by state.

Our view: by 2027, the track itself is increasingly a television studio and a hospitality venue, and the wagering happens on phones. Tracks that price, stream and schedule for the online customer will hold handle better than those that do not.

HISA safety record heading into 2027

Safety data is the sport’s best argument for public trust. The Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority’s 2025 metrics report, published March 24, 2026, recorded 1.04 racing-related equine fatalities per 1,000 starts at HISA-regulated tracks. HISA describes that as “a nearly 50% decline since national reporting began in 2009.” Non-HISA US tracks recorded 1.21 per 1,000 starts. Training fatalities ran at 0.55 per 1,000 workouts, and riding crop violations fell 24.8%.

The numbers are good, and they need to stay good. A single bad week at a marquee meet can undo years of data in the public mind, and 2027 has three of the biggest stages in the sport lined up.

Belmont Park, Pimlico and the 2027 big-race calendar

New York is the headline. Live racing at the rebuilt Belmont Park began on September 18, 2026, and NYRA has confirmed that the 159th Belmont Stakes, a $2 million Grade 1, will run there on Saturday, June 5, 2027, closing a three-day festival after three years at Saratoga. Belmont Park will then host the Breeders’ Cup in the fall of 2027, following a $455 million reconstruction. Two championship events at a new venue in one year is a rare gift for New York handle. See our New York horse racing page for local betting options.

Maryland is on a similar path. The state agreed in June 2026 to buy the Preakness, matching an $85 million bid from Churchill Downs Inc. Pimlico is being rebuilt and is slated to host the 2027 Preakness, though Maryland Jockey Club president Bill Knauf said “the building itself won’t be ready until 2028,” so temporary structures will handle seating and hospitality.

The Kentucky Derby remains the sport’s cash machine. CDI reported all-time record all-sources wagering for Derby Week in 2026, with peak NBC viewership of 24.4 million. We expect the 2027 Derby to chase another record, though a Triple Crown with a construction-site Preakness and a brand-new Belmont adds operational risk that racing has not faced in years.

Sports betting and prediction markets: competition for the same dollar

Racing’s competition is no longer just casinos. Rhodes College economist and horseplayer Marshall Gramm put it simply in TDN’s year-end analysis: “The increased competition with other gambling ventures is hurting the sport.” Sportsbooks offer faster results, cheaper bet construction and heavy marketing.

Prediction markets are the newer front. Before the 2026 Derby, Polymarket pulled a Derby winner market at Churchill Downs’ request. CEO Bill Carstanjen argued the Interstate Horseracing Act gives tracks rights to their racing content: “We haven’t agreed to provide our content to prediction markets.” NTRA chief Tom Rooney said “there is a door that could be opened” if a stakeholder consents. At a March 2026 HBPA panel reported by BloodHorse, prediction markets were reported to have taken $1.2 million on the 2025 Derby, small change against pari-mutuel pools, and Monmouth’s Dennis Drazin threatened legal action if they take bets on his races.

Our read: racing holds a stronger legal card than other sports thanks to the IHA, but that card is only valuable if it is played. We expect at least one licensing deal or test case involving racing content and an event-contract exchange by the end of 2027. For more on how these platforms operate, see our prediction markets hub.

What to expect in 2027

  • Handle keeps falling, but slowly. After a 2.10% drop in 2025 and a 4.52% first-half decline in 2026, we expect another low single-digit fall in 2027 national Thoroughbred handle.
  • Purses outrun wagering again. HHR revenue, led by Kentucky’s $11.2 billion in machine wagers, should keep purses flat to slightly higher even as handle shrinks.
  • Fewer race days, fewer starters. The 2026 cuts to race days and starts point to further consolidation of the calendar.
  • New York looks set for its best year in a decade. A Belmont Stakes and a Breeders’ Cup at the new Belmont Park should lift NYRA handle, even if the national figure falls.
  • Expect a messy but successful Preakness. Expect the race to run at Pimlico on schedule, with temporary facilities and lower attendance than a finished venue would draw.
  • ADW share climbs further. Illinois at 69% online is the template, and we expect more states to cross the two-thirds mark.
  • Prediction markets force a decision. Either a track licenses its content to an exchange, or the IHA argument ends up in court.

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Further reading on American.Bet

Will the 2027 Belmont Stakes be run at Belmont Park?

Yes. NYRA has scheduled the 159th Belmont Stakes for Saturday, June 5, 2027, at the rebuilt Belmont Park, after three years at Saratoga Race Course.

Where is the 2027 Preakness Stakes being held?

The 2027 Preakness is slated to return to a rebuilt Pimlico in Baltimore. The main building will not be finished until 2028, so temporary seating and hospitality will be used.

Can you bet on the Kentucky Derby on prediction markets like Kalshi or Polymarket?

Not as of October 2026. Polymarket removed a 2026 Derby market at Churchill Downs’ request, and Kalshi has not listed Derby contracts. Derby wagers are placed through licensed pari-mutuel racebooks.

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