Prediction markets let you put money on almost anything with an outcome: Sunday’s football, the Fed’s next rate call, the midterms, the box office. Here are the top US prediction market sites and apps for betting on events, how they work, which states allow them, and how the five biggest platforms compare, checked in October 2026.
Prediction markets are the busiest new corner of American betting. Instead of taking odds from a bookmaker, you trade event contracts, simple yes/no positions on what will happen next in sports, politics, the economy and culture, on exchanges regulated by the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The 2024 election pushed them into the mainstream and the money has followed. Kalshi alone reported about $40 billion of trading in July 2026, the month of the World Cup final, and investors valued it at $22 billion in May, with talks reported since at around $40 billion.
In this article 12 sections
- Prediction markets in brief
- The top 5 prediction market platforms in the US
- New prediction market sites and apps
- How prediction markets work
- Prediction market examples
- Prediction market apps compared
- Are prediction markets legal in the US?
- Where prediction markets are legal: state by state
- Prediction market taxes
- Trade within your limits
- Prediction markets in 2027
- More
Prediction markets in brief
| Federal regulator | Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) |
| Minimum age | 18+ on most platforms |
| Non-sports contracts | Offered nationwide by the major apps |
| Sports contracts | Contested: federal appeals courts are split |
| Court orders in force against Kalshi sports contracts | Nevada and Michigan |
| Supreme Court | Flaherty v. KalshiEX (No. 26-299) petition pending |
| Pricing | 1¢ to 99¢ per contract; winning contracts settle at $1 |
The top 5 prediction market platforms in the US
We rank prediction market apps on regulation and safety, market depth, fees, ease of use and how reliably they pay. None of these platforms is a commercial partner of American.Bet, so there are no sign-up links or Promo Codes here; the rankings are editorial.
- Kalshi: best fully regulated platform, with the deepest US markets
- Polymarket: best for politics, world events and crypto users
- Robinhood: best for beginners, inside an app millions already use
- DraftKings Predictions: best mainstream app for sports fans in non-betting states
- FanDuel Predicts: best for sports and finance contracts built on CME Group
Kalshi: the market leader
Kalshi is the most established US prediction market and the first to hold a CFTC Designated Contract Market license, granted in 2020. It is also the busiest by a distance: around $40 billion traded in July 2026, a $1 billion Series F in May at a $22 billion valuation, and a reported raise at about $40 billion in talks since. Sports still drive most of the volume, though chief executive Tarek Mansour said in October that sports had fallen to about 65% of revenue, from about 95% nine months earlier, as economics, politics and culture markets grew. Kalshi is dollar-funded and open to traders 18 and up, and it supplies the markets behind Coinbase, Robinhood and PrizePicks. The problem: its sports contracts sit at the center of the sector’s biggest legal fights, and they are switched off in Nevada and Michigan by court order. Read our Kalshi review.
Polymarket: best for politics and world events
Polymarket is the biggest crypto-native exchange, famous for its 2024 election forecasting and deep liquidity on global and political events. After three years shut out of the US, it bought the CFTC-licensed QCX exchange and relaunched stateside in December 2025, opening its iOS app nationwide in May 2026. The US app is a separate, smaller product than the global site, with sports, politics, crypto and economics markets, and it is not offered in Nevada. A $2 billion investment from ICE, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, valued it at roughly $15 billion, and it has since been reported to be seeking money at a higher figure. Read our Polymarket review.
Robinhood: best for beginners
Robinhood bolts prediction markets onto the app millions already use for stocks and crypto, so there is no new account to open. Contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, a CFTC-registered futures commission merchant, and listed from exchanges including Kalshi, with a flat, transparent fee of $0.02 per contract. The pick-a-side interface makes it the easiest entry point, and volume is enormous: about 2.6 billion contracts in December 2025 alone. Robinhood does not offer sports contracts in Maryland, New Jersey or Nevada. Read our Robinhood review.
DraftKings Predictions: best mainstream sports app
DraftKings launched Predictions on December 19, 2025 in 38 states, including California, Florida, Georgia and Texas, where no legal online sportsbook exists. It offers financial contracts wherever it is live and sports contracts only where DraftKings does not run a licensed sportsbook. At launch it stayed out of Washington, Montana, Arizona, Nevada, Iowa, Illinois, Arkansas, Tennessee, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Maine altogether. Contracts first ran through outside exchanges including CME Group; DraftKings bought the Railbird exchange and on June 26, 2026 moved Predictions onto its own exchange, DKeX. It added sports-contract combos in 2026. Read our DraftKings Predictions review.
FanDuel Predicts: best for sports and finance on CME
FanDuel’s event-markets app, built with CME Group, launched on December 22, 2025 and was live in all 50 states by mid-January 2026. Its core menu covers financial benchmarks such as the S&P 500, the Nasdaq-100, oil and gas, plus cultural events. Sports contracts across baseball, basketball, football and hockey appear only in states where FanDuel has no sportsbook, never on tribal lands, and are removed once a state legalizes betting. Backed by Flutter Entertainment, it is a natural pick for sports-minded traders in non-betting states, with responsible-gaming tools and Kindbridge support built in. Read our FanDuel Predicts review.
New prediction market sites and apps
The big five are not alone. Since late 2025 a wave of brokers, fantasy operators and crypto exchanges have opened their own front doors, most of them reselling contracts from an existing CFTC-regulated exchange.
- Coinbase: rolled prediction markets out to all 50 states on January 28, 2026, inside the main Coinbase app. Every contract comes from Kalshi, and you can trade with dollars or USDC.
- Fanatics Markets: launched December 3, 2025 with pricing and markets from Crypto.com’s CFTC-registered exchange. It opened first in Alaska, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Maine, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota and Utah, and stayed out of states fighting prediction markets in court, such as Massachusetts, Nevada, Maryland, New Jersey and New York.
- Crypto.com: runs its own exchange and powers several partner apps, including Fanatics Markets, Underdog and Truth Social’s prediction product.
- Underdog: the fantasy operator lists event contracts from Crypto.com and bought an exchange of its own in March 2026.
- PrizePicks: the pick’em fantasy app offers prediction markets through Kalshi.
- Novig and ProphetX: sports-first exchanges where you trade against other users rather than a house line.
Newer apps change their state lists often, so check what is live where you are before you deposit.
How prediction markets work
A prediction market is an exchange where people buy and sell contracts tied to the outcome of a real-world event. Each contract is a yes/no question (“Will the Chiefs win the Super Bowl?”, “Will the Fed cut rates at its next meeting?”, “Will the S&P 500 close higher today?”) and trades at a price between 1¢ and 99¢. That price is the market’s implied probability: a contract trading at 29¢ means traders collectively see a 29% chance. If you are right, each contract settles at $1.00; if you are wrong, it settles at $0.00. You can also sell your position before the event resolves, locking in a profit or cutting a loss, much like cashing out a live bet.
How to place your first trade
- Sign up and verify. Create an account (18+ on most apps) and complete identity verification.
- Fund your account. Most apps take debit cards and bank transfers; crypto-native platforms also take USDC.
- Pick a market. Browse by category (sports, politics, economics, culture) and read the resolution rules.
- Buy Yes or No. The price is the implied probability; a winning contract pays $1.00.
- Hold or trade out. Sell before resolution if the price moves your way, or hold to settlement.
Worked example: you buy 20 “Yes” contracts at 40¢ for $8 plus fees. If the event happens, they settle at $20, a $12 gain before fees. If it does not, you lose the $8. If the price climbs to 60¢ before the event, you can sell early for $12.
Prediction markets vs sportsbooks
Prediction markets look like betting, but legally and mechanically they are closer to a stock exchange. The main differences:
- Regulator: prediction markets are overseen federally by the CFTC; sportsbooks are licensed state by state.
- Minimum age: most prediction markets allow 18+, versus 21+ at licensed sportsbooks in almost every state.
- Pricing: you pay a probability (1¢ to 99¢) rather than American odds, and the cost is usually a small per-contract fee instead of the margin built into sportsbook lines.
- Counterparty: you trade against other users, not against the house.
- Availability: because they are federally regulated, prediction markets reach states with no legal sportsbook, including California, Texas and Georgia.
Prediction market examples
To see how contracts work in practice:
- Sports: “Will Los Angeles win the World Series?” Each team has its own yes/no contract, so if the Dodgers trade at 29¢ the market sees a 29% chance. Prices across the whole field do not add up to exactly 100%.
- Politics: the November 2026 midterms produced more than 21,000 markets on Kalshi and Polymarket by the end of September, against 463 on the 2024 congressional races, according to a count by the research group ACDC. A Senate race contract pays $1.00 to the right side when the result is certified.
- Economics: “Will the Fed cut rates at its next meeting?” One analysis of settled markets found Kalshi’s favorite the day before was right in all 28 Federal Open Market Committee decisions from May 2023 to September 2026.
- Combos: several apps now let you bundle contracts, parlay-style, across games or categories. Kalshi’s cross-category combos made up most of its volume in one September week, according to DeFi Rate’s tracking.
Prediction market apps compared
| Platform | Exchange and regulator | Sports contracts | Funding | Fees | Best for |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Own CFTC Designated Contract Market | Yes, except where blocked by court order (NV, MI) | US dollars | Per-contract fee, varies by price | Depth across every category |
| Polymarket | QCX, CFTC-licensed | Yes on the US app; not in Nevada | USDC-based | Varies by market | Politics and world events |
| Robinhood | Robinhood Derivatives (FCM), contracts from Kalshi and others | Yes, except MD, NJ and NV | Robinhood account | $0.02 per contract | Beginners |
| DraftKings Predictions | DKeX, its own exchange, since June 2026 | Only where DraftKings has no sportsbook | DraftKings wallet | Varies by market | Sports fans in non-betting states |
| FanDuel Predicts | CME Group | Only where FanDuel has no sportsbook | Standalone app | Varies by market | Sports and financial benchmarks |
Which prediction market is best for you?
- For politics and elections: Polymarket and Kalshi lead on depth and breadth. PredictIt remains a long-running, politics-focused research market with tight position limits. Read our PredictIt review.
- For football and other sports: FanDuel Predicts and DraftKings Predictions in states without a legal sportsbook; Kalshi and Robinhood elsewhere, subject to state restrictions.
- For economics and finance: Kalshi pioneered Fed, CPI and jobs contracts, and FanDuel Predicts leans on CME’s financial benchmarks.
- For beginners: Robinhood, thanks to its stripped-down interface and flat fee.
- For crypto users: Polymarket, or Coinbase if you already hold USDC there.
Are prediction markets legal in the US?
Mostly yes, but it is the most contested question in American betting, and the answer depends on the type of market and the state you are in.
The federal picture
Prediction markets operate under the CFTC, which claims exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts traded on a regulated exchange. On that footing the major platforms treat non-sports markets (politics, economics, weather, culture) as legal nationwide for anyone 18 or older. The current CFTC, led by chair Mike Selig, has backed the platforms in court, filing briefs in several cases and, in April 2026, suing Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois to stop them enforcing state gambling laws against Kalshi and Polymarket.
Sports contracts: the courts are split
Sports event contracts are the flashpoint. States argue they are unlicensed sports betting; the platforms argue they are federally regulated swaps. The federal appeals courts have split:
- For the platforms: in April 2026 a divided Third Circuit held that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over sports-related event contracts, blocking New Jersey from enforcing its gambling laws against Kalshi.
- For the states: on August 28, 2026, the Ninth Circuit ruled that Kalshi’s sports contracts are not swaps, allowing Nevada to enforce its gaming laws. On September 25, 2026, the Sixth Circuit reached the same conclusion in cases from Ohio and Tennessee, a ruling that also governs federal courts in Michigan and Kentucky.
- At the Supreme Court: New Jersey’s petition in Flaherty v. KalshiEX (No. 26-299) was docketed on September 8, 2026, with Kalshi’s response due November 9, 2026. Gaming regulators, more than 140 tribes, the NFL and the American Gaming Association are among those that have filed amicus briefs.
- Still pending: the Fourth Circuit heard argument in Maryland’s case on May 7, 2026, and Maryland has agreed not to enforce against Kalshi until it rules.
State enforcement
Nevada and Michigan are the two states that have actually forced Kalshi to switch off sports contracts. A Nevada court order has applied since March 2026, and Kalshi agreed to use a third-party geofence after the state said its in-house blocking failed. In Michigan, an Ingham County judge first ordered a block on June 29, 2026 and later set a deadline to geofence the state or pay $500,000 a day. Massachusetts won an injunction, but it is on hold while Kalshi appeals. Arizona filed 20 criminal misdemeanor counts against Kalshi in March 2026, a first for the industry, and the city of Baltimore sued Kalshi and Polymarket in August 2026.
Where prediction markets are legal: state by state
Non-sports markets on the major apps are open in all 50 states and Washington, D.C. Sports contracts depend on where you are:
| State situation | States | What it means for you |
|---|---|---|
| Court order in force against Kalshi sports contracts | Nevada, Michigan | Kalshi sports markets blocked; other markets still open |
| Appeals court sided with the state | Ohio, Tennessee (and Nevada) | States can enforce gambling laws while the cases continue |
| Enforcement paused or on appeal | Maryland, Massachusetts | Sports contracts still live for now |
| Appeals court sided with Kalshi | New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware | Protected unless the Supreme Court rules otherwise |
| No legal sportsbook | California, Texas, Georgia and others | The main market for sports contracts on DraftKings and FanDuel’s apps |
Each app also sets its own rules: Robinhood skips sports in Maryland, New Jersey and Nevada; FanDuel and DraftKings offer sports only where they have no sportsbook; Polymarket’s US app is not available in Nevada. Always check what is live in your state inside the app before you fund an account. Pick a state below for its full gambling picture.
SB sportsbooks · CA online casinos · HR horse betting
Prediction market taxes
Profits from event contracts are generally taxable, and some platforms, such as Robinhood, issue 1099 forms. Treatment can differ from sports betting winnings, so keep records and ask a tax professional about your own situation.
Trade within your limits
Event contracts can feel like investing, but on sports and entertainment they behave like bets: you can lose your whole stake. Set a budget, do not trade to chase losses, and use any limits your platform offers. If trading stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit GambleAware.org. Our responsible gambling page has more help.
Prediction markets in 2027
Will the Supreme Court step in?
With the Third Circuit on one side and the Sixth and Ninth Circuits on the other, the Flaherty v. KalshiEX petition is the most likely route to a national answer. Kalshi’s response is due November 9, 2026, after which the Court decides whether to hear the case; a ruling would most likely land in 2027.
The Fourth Circuit’s Maryland ruling
The Fourth Circuit heard argument in Maryland’s case in May 2026. Its decision will either deepen the split or narrow it, and will decide whether sports contracts stay live in Maryland.
More big brands, fewer states?
Coinbase, Fanatics and the fantasy apps all launched in the past year. If more states win orders like Nevada’s and Michigan’s, expect the newest apps to keep growing in states without sportsbooks while retreating where courts side with regulators.
What is the best prediction market app in the US?
For most traders, Kalshi is the best all-round choice: the most established, fully CFTC-regulated, dollar-funded exchange with the deepest markets. Robinhood is best for beginners, Polymarket for politics and crypto users, and FanDuel Predicts or DraftKings Predictions for sports in states without a sportsbook.
Are prediction markets legal in the US?
Yes. Prediction markets run on CFTC-regulated exchanges and are broadly available nationwide for traders 18 and older. The exception is sports event contracts, which several states are challenging in court, with federal appeals courts split and a Supreme Court petition pending.
Can I use prediction markets in California or Texas?
Yes. Neither state has legal online sports betting, which makes them prime markets for prediction apps. Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts all offer sports contracts in both states as of October 2026.
Are prediction markets legal in Nevada and Michigan?
Non-sports markets are. Sports contracts are the problem: court orders have forced Kalshi to block sports markets in both states, Robinhood does not offer sports in Nevada, and Polymarket’s US app is not available in Nevada at all.
Do you have to be 21 to use prediction markets?
No. Because they are regulated as financial exchanges rather than sportsbooks, most prediction markets allow users 18 and older, against 21 at nearly every licensed sportsbook.
Which prediction market has the lowest fees?
Robinhood is among the cheapest at a flat $0.02 per contract. Kalshi and Polymarket charge fees that vary with the contract price, and PredictIt charges 10% on profits plus 5% on withdrawals.
Are prediction market winnings taxable?
Yes, profits are generally taxable. Some apps issue 1099 forms, and the treatment can differ from sports betting winnings, so keep a record of your trades.
Do prediction markets offer bonuses or promo codes?
Some run referral credits or small sign-up offers that change often. American.Bet has no partner deals with prediction markets and lists no Promo Codes, so check each app’s own terms.
